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The key numbers this year are
2694.97: 2017 high
2673.61: 2017 close
2872.87: Jan high, 199.26 (7.45%) over 2017 close
Our current uptrend started 4/2 from 2553.41.
Our 2016 channel top went above Jan high in May, which was same time the 2016 channel bottom (currently 2630) went above our 4/2 uptrend start. That channel bottom reaches 2700 near 9/24.
We just dropped to the bottom of our daily channel (see Channels below).
8, 21, 34 are Exponential. 50, 100, 200 are Simple. Month, Week, Day and 4h.
With July 30 close of 2818.82:
2815 8 4h
2815 8 D
2810.75 21 4h
2796 21 D
2778.5 50 4h
2782 8 W (lineup perhaps 2775)
2763 50 D
2742 21 W
2720 100 D
2695 8 M
2696 200 D
2671 50 W
2541 21 M (2009 channel bottom — weekly open below kicks off bear market)
Pullback (pb) Scenarios
To put this in context, our primary up trend began on 4/2 with a low of 2553.41 in SPX. Our recent high of 2848.03 is 294.62 points from that.
A bullish pullback is a healthy one that sets us up to potentially reach new all time highs (ATH). Example: a measured move pullback of 50%, which, when bought, sets 127.2% as the long target.
2790s: 2792.59 is a 23.% retrace of your YTD, and has been support since getting over it. 2791.47 is our June high before our pb to test 2700 area (drawings “Up last big”).
2778.5: This is a 23.6% pb of our 4/2 uptrend from current high. In this scenario, continuation lower to 2770 is likely. A reversal back up without touching 2770 would be very bullish.
2770: This is 50% of our up move from 2691.99 to 2848.03 (drawing “Up last small”). Note that this up move hit a 127.2% target after a 50% pullback of the up move from 2594.62 to 2791.47 (drawing “Up last big”).
2760: Untested support where volume was built after breakout over 2646 area. Since 50% pullbacks can often do a look below, this would be a logical extension of our 2770 pullback scenario.
2740s: Retest of our March range top. We broke out above it on 7/6 and haven’t tested it since.
2700: In bullish pb scenarios, the worst right now is a 50% pb of our 4/2 based uptrend to 2700.72, taking us back to testing our 2017 high at 2694.97.
Below 2700: At this point things become more bearish, and eyes fall on 2017 close at 2673.61, and the 2016 channel bottom near 2630. While we were below 2630 this year, we never touched this channel bottom.
We are in four different up channels on different time frames:
- 2009 up channel
- 2016 up channel
- 2018 up channel (begins 4/2)
- Daily up channel (best viewed with /ES 4h)
While this is how I’ve chosen to phase in my SPX option strategy, the principles of phasing in can be applied to any new trading strategy.
Feb-Mar: 97% cash, learn and practice mechanics, minimal loss
Apr-May: 97% cash, learn and practice risk management, no loss
Jun-Aug: 70% cash, begin to scale, increase theta, first profits
Sep-Dec: 40-60% cash, measure ROC
2019+: 40-60% cash, increase ROC
It already had its breakout when it broke over its 2011 high earlier this year. With only one day left, May is likely to be the first month to not of dipped below it. This is not to say it cannot come back down an retest it at some point. But, it took awhile for the breakout to be confirmed.
While not the prettiest of SKYY holdings, it does seem to be worth some allocation if you are looking to park more cash. It certainly has recovered well since Aug 2016.
Unable to complete a gap fill of its December gap, AKAM has continued its journey higher, pressing to break to test its all-time-high (ATH) with higher lows. This is setup for a possible breakout higher, much like NFLX did last week.
This also has great support at its purple fib and the 8-EMA on the weekly (blue line). That is great location for long entry if you can get it before it breaks to a new ATH.
Netflix is the #1 holding in SKYY, and definitely one of its strongest components. Last week I identified it was on the verge of a breakout. And, sure enough, it broke out the next day. You don’t need anything other than technicals to see that with higher lows, it was wedging to breakout all 2018, despite the market being in turmoil, with extreme drops, and the S&P basically going nowhere as it repeatedly chopped its 2018 open.
Yet, if you are in need of fundamentals behind this beautiful chart, I need only to remind you that they are not only #1 in monetized video content delivery in the world, but they are also growing rapidly internationally. This includes bringing and new dubbing foreign content to existing audiences, such as 3% and The Rain. Combined with their ever growing long list of original content, they are an innovative displacement to older industries including cable and Hollywood.
If they weren’t busy growing their international audiences, I’d be expecting new diverse business model innovations leveraging their vast infrastructure and content market place they created. Perhaps one day, that will come. Until then, they will grow their core business and are likely to remain #1 in it for years to come.
Immediate supports in NFLX, which would be possible long entries if you are looking to add, include $339, $334, $323 and $311.
The ETF, SKYY, has some real winners among its 31 holdings, including NFLX and AMZN. While /ES is down 1.1%, and SKYY is down 0.77% today, NFLX and AMZN are both up today. NFLX even hit a new all time high (ATH) today.
Note that today’s drop is largely because of the financial sector, down 3%. The S&P Tech sector is only down 0.92%.
While SKYY has proven to be a great buy and hold, especially if you bought at the beginning of 2016, you have to wonder if you can cherry pick its holdings to build a better cloud portfolio.
Here are the holdings in SKYY as of 2018-May-29. Click on a stock with a link to learn more.
|Netflix, Inc.||NFLX||Internet & Direct Marketing Retail||7.30%|
|Akamai Technologies, Inc.||AKAM||Internet Software & Services||5.35%|
|Amazon.com, Inc.||AMZN||Internet & Direct Marketing Retail||5.34%|
|F5 Networks, Inc.||FFIV||Communications Equipment||4.88%|
|Red Hat, Inc.||RHT||Software||4.88%|
|NetApp, Inc.||NTAP||Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals||4.54%|
|Cisco Systems, Inc.||CSCO||Communications Equipment||4.52%|
|Open Text Corporation||OTEX||Software||4.15%|
|Alphabet Inc. (Class A)||GOOGL||Internet Software & Services||4.08%|
|Facebook, Inc. (Class A)||FB||Internet Software & Services||4.07%|
|Teradata Corporation||TDC||IT Services||3.98%|
|SAP SE (ADR)||SAP||Software||3.92%|
|Juniper Networks, Inc.||JNPR||Communications Equipment||3.83%|
|Equinix, Inc.||EQIX||Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)||3.26%|
|Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company||HPE||Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals||2.43%|
|Apple Inc.||AAPL||Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals||2.39%|
|International Business Machines Corporation||IBM||IT Services||2.03%|
|Adobe Systems Incorporated||ADBE||Software||1.40%|
|Activision Blizzard, Inc.||ATVI||Software||1.19%|
|j2 Global, Inc.||JCOM||Internet Software & Services||1.18%|
|Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.||CHKP||Software||0.97%|
|NetScout Systems, Inc.||NTCT||Communications Equipment||0.92%|
|Wipro Ltd. (ADR)||WIT||IT Services||0.89%|
Trading clients such as ThnkOrSwim allow you to have alerts when conditions are met on your chart. If your client allows you to use MP3s in place of standard alert sounds, then you can customize your alerts so you know what is firing.
To Create an audio alert
Use Text-to-Speech to create MP3s of text.
$ mpg123 -w forex.wav forex.mp3
This is how you get 10 pointers