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Context

The key numbers this year are

2694.97: 2017 high
2673.61: 2017 close
2872.87: Jan high, 199.26 (7.45%) over 2017 close

Our current uptrend started 4/2 from 2553.41.

Our 2016 channel top went above Jan high in May, which was same time the 2016 channel bottom (currently 2630) went above our 4/2 uptrend start.  That channel bottom reaches 2700 near 9/24.

We just dropped to the bottom of our daily channel (see Channels below).

MAs

8, 21, 34 are Exponential.  50, 100, 200 are Simple. Month, Week, Day and 4h.

With July 30 close of 2818.82:

2815        8 4h
2815    8 D
2810.75        21 4h
2796        21 D
2778.5        50 4h
2782         8 W (lineup perhaps 2775)
2763        50 D
2742        21 W
2720        100 D
2695        8 M
2696        200 D
2671        50 W
2541        21 M (2009 channel bottom — weekly open below kicks off bear market)

Pullback (pb) Scenarios

To put this in context, our primary up trend began on 4/2 with a low of 2553.41 in SPX.  Our recent high of 2848.03 is 294.62 points from that.

A bullish pullback is a healthy one that sets us up to potentially reach new all time highs (ATH).  Example: a measured move pullback of 50%, which, when bought, sets 127.2% as the long target.

2790s: 2792.59 is a 23.% retrace of your YTD, and has been support since getting over it. 2791.47 is our June high before our pb to test 2700 area (drawings “Up last big”).

2778.5: This is a 23.6% pb of our 4/2 uptrend from current high.  In this scenario, continuation lower to 2770 is likely. A reversal back up without touching 2770 would be very bullish.

2770: This is 50% of our up move from 2691.99 to 2848.03 (drawing “Up last small”).  Note that this up move hit a 127.2% target after a 50% pullback of the up move from 2594.62 to 2791.47 (drawing “Up last big”).

2760: Untested support where volume was built after breakout over 2646 area.  Since 50% pullbacks can often do a look below, this would be a logical extension of our 2770 pullback scenario.

2740s: Retest of our March range top.  We broke out above it on 7/6 and haven’t tested it since.

2700: In bullish pb scenarios, the worst right now is a 50% pb of our 4/2 based uptrend to 2700.72, taking us back to testing our 2017 high at 2694.97.

Below 2700: At this point things become more bearish, and eyes fall on 2017 close at 2673.61, and the 2016 channel bottom near 2630.  While we were below 2630 this year, we never touched this channel bottom.

Channels

We are in four different up channels on different time frames:

  • 2009 up channel
  • 2016 up channel
  • 2018 up channel (begins 4/2)
  • Daily up channel (best viewed with /ES 4h)

Charts

Uptrend from 4/2 low

Up last big

Up last small

YTD (2018)

  • Posted on 29. July 2018
  • Written by Erik
  • Categories: Markets
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While this is how I’ve chosen to phase in my SPX option strategy, the principles of phasing in can be applied to any new trading strategy.

Feb-Mar: 97% cash, learn and practice mechanics, minimal loss

Apr-May: 97% cash, learn and practice risk management, no loss

Jun-Aug: 70% cash, begin to scale, increase theta, first profits

Sep-Dec: 40-60% cash, measure ROC

2019+: 40-60% cash, increase ROC

 

  • Posted on 1. July 2018
  • Written by Erik
  • Categories: Trade Ideas
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It already had its breakout when it broke over its 2011 high earlier this year.  With only one day left, May is likely to be the first month to not of dipped below it.  This is not to say it cannot come back down an retest it at some point.  But, it took awhile for the breakout to be confirmed.

While not the prettiest of SKYY holdings, it does seem to be worth some allocation if you are looking to park more cash.  It certainly has recovered well since Aug 2016.

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Yet another beautiful chart screaming it wants to break to new ATHs, AMZN just barely trails AKAM to take 3rd place in SKYY holdings.

Just look at the chart.  It speaks for itself.  Good luck getting entry below.  Could take a miracle.  You never know.  Can happen.

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Just barely edging AMZN for 2nd place in SKYY holdings, AKAM, like NFLX, has an impressive 2018 chart.

Unable to complete a gap fill of its December gap, AKAM has continued its journey higher, pressing to break to test its all-time-high (ATH) with higher lows.  This is setup for a possible breakout higher, much like NFLX did last week.

This also has great support at its purple fib and the 8-EMA on the weekly (blue line).  That is great location for long entry if you can get it before it breaks to a new ATH.

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Netflix is the #1 holding in SKYY, and definitely one of its strongest components.  Last week I identified it was on the verge of a breakout.  And, sure enough, it broke out the next day.  You don’t need anything other than technicals to see that with higher lows, it was wedging to breakout all 2018, despite the market being in turmoil, with extreme drops, and the S&P basically going nowhere as it repeatedly chopped its 2018 open.

Yet, if you are in need of fundamentals behind this beautiful chart, I need only to remind you that they are not only #1 in monetized video content delivery in the world, but they are also growing rapidly internationally.  This includes bringing and new dubbing foreign content to existing audiences, such as 3% and The Rain.  Combined with their ever growing long list of original content, they are an innovative displacement to older industries including cable and Hollywood.

If they weren’t busy growing their international audiences, I’d be expecting new diverse business model innovations leveraging their vast infrastructure and content market place they created.  Perhaps one day, that will come.  Until then, they will grow their core business and are likely to remain #1 in it for years to come.

Immediate supports in NFLX, which would be possible long entries if you are looking to add, include $339, $334, $323 and $311.

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The ETF, SKYY, has some real winners among its 31 holdings, including NFLX and AMZN.  While /ES is down 1.1%, and SKYY is down 0.77% today, NFLX and AMZN are both up today.  NFLX even hit a new all time high (ATH) today.

Note that today’s drop is largely because of the financial sector, down 3%.  The S&P Tech sector is only down 0.92%.

While SKYY has proven to be a great buy and hold, especially if you bought at the beginning of 2016, you have to wonder if you can cherry pick its holdings to build a better cloud portfolio.

Here are the holdings in SKYY as of 2018-May-29.  Click on a stock with a link to learn more.

Security Name Identifier Classification Weighting
Netflix, Inc. NFLX Internet & Direct Marketing Retail 7.30%
Akamai Technologies, Inc. AKAM Internet Software & Services 5.35%
Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN Internet & Direct Marketing Retail 5.34%
F5 Networks, Inc. FFIV Communications Equipment 4.88%
Red Hat, Inc. RHT Software 4.88%
salesforce.com, inc. CRM Software 4.78%
NetApp, Inc. NTAP Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals 4.54%
Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO Communications Equipment 4.52%
VMware, Inc. VMW Software 4.43%
Open Text Corporation OTEX Software 4.15%
Alphabet Inc. (Class A) GOOGL Internet Software & Services 4.08%
Facebook, Inc. (Class A) FB Internet Software & Services 4.07%
Teradata Corporation TDC IT Services 3.98%
Zynga Inc. ZNGA Software 3.97%
SAP SE (ADR) SAP Software 3.92%
Juniper Networks, Inc. JNPR Communications Equipment 3.83%
Oracle Corporation ORCL Software 3.74%
Equinix, Inc. EQIX Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 3.26%
Microsoft Corporation MSFT Software 2.55%
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company HPE Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals 2.43%
Apple Inc. AAPL Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals 2.39%
International Business Machines Corporation IBM IT Services 2.03%
Adobe Systems Incorporated ADBE Software 1.40%
Intuit Inc. INTU Software 1.31%
Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI Software 1.19%
j2 Global, Inc. JCOM Internet Software & Services 1.18%
CA, Inc. CA Software 1.12%
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. CHKP Software 0.97%
NetScout Systems, Inc. NTCT Communications Equipment 0.92%
Wipro Ltd. (ADR) WIT IT Services 0.89%

 

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Trading clients such as ThnkOrSwim allow you to have alerts when conditions are met on your chart.  If your client allows you to use MP3s in place of standard alert sounds, then you can customize your alerts so you know what is firing.

To Create an audio alert

Use Text-to-Speech to create MP3s of text.

Convert it to a WAV file. If version of Audacity lacks MP3 support, you can use this command in Linux:

$ mpg123 -w forex.wav forex.mp3
TOS users will want to combine in Audacity with the alert bell.
Here are some audio alerts created:
/ES (S&P 500 e-mini future in TOS)
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  • Posted on 15. December 2016
  • Written by Sto
  • Categories: Uncategorized
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This is how you get 10 pointers

es-10-27-16-6-05-ames-10-27-16-5-17-pm

  • Posted on 27. October 2016
  • Written by Sto
  • Categories: Markets
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