Discuss trading and the market on the TradeHigher Discord server.

Context

The key numbers this year are

2694.97: 2017 high
2673.61: 2017 close
2872.87: Jan high, 199.26 (7.45%) over 2017 close

Our current uptrend started 4/2 from 2553.41.

Our 2016 channel top went above Jan high in May, which was same time the 2016 channel bottom (currently 2630) went above our 4/2 uptrend start.  That channel bottom reaches 2700 near 9/24.

We just dropped to the bottom of our daily channel (see Channels below).

MAs

8, 21, 34 are Exponential.  50, 100, 200 are Simple. Month, Week, Day and 4h.

With July 30 close of 2818.82:

2815        8 4h
2815    8 D
2810.75        21 4h
2796        21 D
2778.5        50 4h
2782         8 W (lineup perhaps 2775)
2763        50 D
2742        21 W
2720        100 D
2695        8 M
2696        200 D
2671        50 W
2541        21 M (2009 channel bottom — weekly open below kicks off bear market)

Pullback (pb) Scenarios

To put this in context, our primary up trend began on 4/2 with a low of 2553.41 in SPX.  Our recent high of 2848.03 is 294.62 points from that.

A bullish pullback is a healthy one that sets us up to potentially reach new all time highs (ATH).  Example: a measured move pullback of 50%, which, when bought, sets 127.2% as the long target.

2790s: 2792.59 is a 23.% retrace of your YTD, and has been support since getting over it. 2791.47 is our June high before our pb to test 2700 area (drawings “Up last big”).

2778.5: This is a 23.6% pb of our 4/2 uptrend from current high.  In this scenario, continuation lower to 2770 is likely. A reversal back up without touching 2770 would be very bullish.

2770: This is 50% of our up move from 2691.99 to 2848.03 (drawing “Up last small”).  Note that this up move hit a 127.2% target after a 50% pullback of the up move from 2594.62 to 2791.47 (drawing “Up last big”).

2760: Untested support where volume was built after breakout over 2646 area.  Since 50% pullbacks can often do a look below, this would be a logical extension of our 2770 pullback scenario.

2740s: Retest of our March range top.  We broke out above it on 7/6 and haven’t tested it since.

2700: In bullish pb scenarios, the worst right now is a 50% pb of our 4/2 based uptrend to 2700.72, taking us back to testing our 2017 high at 2694.97.

Below 2700: At this point things become more bearish, and eyes fall on 2017 close at 2673.61, and the 2016 channel bottom near 2630.  While we were below 2630 this year, we never touched this channel bottom.

Channels

We are in four different up channels on different time frames:

  • 2009 up channel
  • 2016 up channel
  • 2018 up channel (begins 4/2)
  • Daily up channel (best viewed with /ES 4h)

Charts

Uptrend from 4/2 low

Up last big

Up last small

YTD (2018)

  • Posted on 29. July 2018
  • Written by Erik
  • Categories: Markets
Leave a comment

There are no comments yet.

Leave a Reply